Genk 1-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Genk have won 1, Union St. Gilloise 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 63% and Union St. Gilloise 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 63% | Union St. Gilloise 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.18 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.040 / defence 0.949 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.363 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.177. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Genk games / 64 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 30% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 45%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Union St. Gilloise 2.22. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 40% | Union St. Gilloise 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 30% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Genk 1.18 / Union St. Gilloise 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.040 / def 0.949 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.363 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 1 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 30% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.04x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
30%
3.38
25%
3.94
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Genk xG
Total xG
2.70
1.52
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Genk and 1.52 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Genk have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 37W 19D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 46W 15D 9L from 70 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.86 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.06 PPG from 35 outings (21W 9D 5L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 21W 10D 4L from 35 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.99 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.01 scored and 1.14 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Last 70 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 37W 19D 14L in their last 70 games (1.86 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 15D 9L in their last 70 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.06 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Genk at 60%, Union St. Gilloise at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Genk and 60% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 49% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Genk's games and 74% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Genk's matches and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Union St. Gilloise 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.18 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.52 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.36 / defence 0.72, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 30% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 45%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 63%, Union St. Gilloise 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.86 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.