Antwerp 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 7W 2D 1L at Bosuilstadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antwerp at 1.90 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antwerp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Antwerp, 0 for Union St. Gilloise and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 41% versus Union St. Gilloise 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Union St. Gilloise 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.44 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.260 / defence 0.783 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.381 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.220. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Antwerp games / 63 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 40% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Union St. Gilloise 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | Union St. Gilloise 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 40% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Antwerp 1.44 / Union St. Gilloise 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.260 / def 0.783 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.381 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Union St. Gilloise xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 40% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 0W.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.26x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
40%
2.49
25%
3.93
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.76
1.32
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.32 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 39W 17D 13L from 69 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 46W 14D 9L across 69 games — 2.20 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.94 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 24W 7D 3L from 34 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 21W 9D 4L across 34 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.03 scored and 1.14 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's attacking output running into Antwerp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 39W 17D 13L in their last 69 games (1.94 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 14D 9L in their last 69 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Antwerp's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.32 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 44%, Union St. Gilloise 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antwerp) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Antwerp's games and 74% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antwerp's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.44 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.32 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.38 / defence 0.75, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 40% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.94 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.