Antwerp 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antwerp face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Genk's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Antwerp against 1.50 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Antwerp's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genk in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Genk — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 41% versus Genk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 48% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.51 xG and Genk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.194 / defence 0.796 | Genk attack 1.047 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Antwerp have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Genk's projected output down. Data: built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Genk's last 64.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 50% | Draw 26% | Genk 25%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.02 | Draw 3.86 | Genk 4.08. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Antwerp 60% (last 10 home games) | Genk 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 50% | Draw 26% | Genk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Antwerp 1.51 / Genk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.194 / def 0.796 | Genk attack 1.047 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Genk xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Genk FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Genk kick off?
Antwerp vs Genk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Antwerp 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is Antwerp vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Genk part of?
Antwerp vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 50% chance of winning, Genk a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antwerp and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Antwerp vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.19) and Genk's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.05x) against Antwerp's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Genk's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.86
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.50
0.98
Genk xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.98 for Genk, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp's recent record stands at 39W 18D 14L from 71 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 38W 19D 14L across 71 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Antwerp against 1.87 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 24W 8D 3L from their last 35 home games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 16W 10D 9L across their last 35 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.97 scored and 1.10 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Antwerp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 62%.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Genk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 39W 18D 14L in their last 71 games (1.90 PPG), while Genk have gone 38W 19D 14L in their last 71 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Genk away?
Antwerp's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.29 PPG; Genk away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Genk in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 3-0 Genk on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 46%, Genk 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 57% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Antwerp's games and 66% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antwerp and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antwerp's matches and 57% of Genk's.
Do Antwerp and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Antwerp's recent matches and 74% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.51 xG and Genk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.19 / defence 0.80 against Genk attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 50% | Draw 26% | Genk 25%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Genk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 48%, Genk 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.90 PPG, Genk 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.