Kortrijk 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Guldensporenstadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Antwerp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antwerp away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antwerp are 0.60 PPG clear of Kortrijk in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kortrijk lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 0–6 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus Antwerp 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.05 xG and Antwerp 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.788 / defence 1.175 | Antwerp attack 1.116 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.264. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Kortrijk games / 62 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 51%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Antwerp 1.96. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 40% | Antwerp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Kortrijk 1.05 / Antwerp 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.788 / def 1.175 | Antwerp attack 1.116 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Antwerp xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Antwerp kick off?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Kortrijk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Antwerp part of?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 24% chance of winning, Antwerp a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kortrijk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Record (5 meetings): Kortrijk 2W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 3W.
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.12x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
24%
4.15
24%
4.10
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.71
1.66
Antwerp xG
4.15
24%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
21.75
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.66 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 62 games, going 13W 13D 36L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.82 PPG from 62 outings (32W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 8W 8D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.74 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 13W 13D 36L in their last 62 games (0.84 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 32W 17D 13L in their last 62 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.03 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Antwerp in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Antwerp have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Antwerp have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Antwerp 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 45% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 39%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 39% of games; Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 39% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 45% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.05 xG and Antwerp 1.66 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Antwerp attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 51%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.