Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Red Bull Salzburg — this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Red Bull Salzburg) versus 1.90 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 60% of TSV Hartberg's (from Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Red Bull Salzburg: 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 TSV Hartberg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 62% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 60% | TSV Hartberg 46%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.127 / defence 1.163 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 42 games and TSV Hartberg's last 42.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.73 | Draw 4.04 | TSV Hartberg 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 60% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 / TSV Hartberg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.127 / def 1.163 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 37% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 42 games and TSV Hartberg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
37%
2.73
25%
4.04
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.47 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 26W 15D 11L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 19W 18D 15L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Red Bull Salzburg on 1.79 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 26 home games (15W 6D 5L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 10D 7L from their last 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 18D 15L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.96 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 62%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 65% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.79 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.