Rapid Vienna 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rapid Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Red Bull Salzburg are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) — Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Red Bull Salzburg in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 3 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Rapid Vienna 1–2 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus Red Bull Salzburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 51% | Red Bull Salzburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.13 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.006 / defence 0.974 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.399 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.399, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 43 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 43.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 26% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 48%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.91 | Draw 3.86 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.06. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 26% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.13 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.006 / def 0.974 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.399 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 26% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rapid Vienna's attack rating (1.01) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.40x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 43 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
26%
3.91
26%
3.86
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.77
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
20.09
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.64 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 20W 13D 20L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 11L across 53 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.77 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 14W 4D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 11W 9D 6L across their last 26 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.79 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 13D 20L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 16D 11L in their last 53 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.77 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Rapid Vienna on 2 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 46%, Red Bull Salzburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rapid Vienna) and 50% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 77% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.13 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.40 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 26% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 48%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 51%, Red Bull Salzburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.