Lask Linz 1-5 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lask Linz at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Red Bull Salzburg travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lask Linz stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lask Linz at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Red Bull Salzburg — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lask Linz, 4 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Lask Linz 0–3 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 51% versus Red Bull Salzburg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 55% | Red Bull Salzburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.23 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.075 / defence 0.845 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.132 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.089. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 41 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 41.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.48 | Draw 3.51 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Lask Linz 1.23 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.075 / def 0.845 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.132 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Red Bull Salzburg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Lask Linz 1 - 5 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 40% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lask Linz's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 41 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.51
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.27
1.04
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.04 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lask Linz come into this having played 51 games, going 27W 9D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.76 PPG from 51 outings (25W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.76 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lask Linz's home form reads 15W 5D 5L across their last 25 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.76 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 61%.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 27W 9D 15L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 15D 11L in their last 51 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.00 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 7-1 Lask Linz.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
0
Draws
6
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Lask Linz 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 48% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 76% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Lask Linz 1-5 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.23 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 40% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 31%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.76 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.