Sharjah FC 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 0D 2L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 1W 5D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sharjah FC, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 3–4 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 38% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.40 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.051 / defence 0.990 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.705 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.207. Data: 16 Sharjah FC games / 16 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4.55. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Sharjah FC 1.40 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.051 / def 0.990 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.705 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 49% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.05) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.70x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.45
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.24
0.84
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.84 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 3D 4L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 8W 6D 2L from 16 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Sharjah FC against 1.88 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 6D 2L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 25%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sharjah FC) and 12% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 12% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.40 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.84 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.88 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.