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Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sharjah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Sharjah FC 1-4 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 0.68 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.72 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.55, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 14% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights