Sharjah FC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:05 UTC.
Form
Sharjah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Sharjah FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Khorfakkan managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 68% and Khorfakkan 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sharjah FC 60% | Khorfakkan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.55 xG and Khorfakkan 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.116 / defence 0.677 | Khorfakkan attack 1.156 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.918 / away 1.462. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Sharjah FC games / 37 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 67% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 14%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Khorfakkan 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 50% | Khorfakkan 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 67% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Sharjah FC 2.55 / Khorfakkan 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.116 / def 0.677 | Khorfakkan attack 1.156 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.918 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 67% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Sharjah FC 5W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.12) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (1.16x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.28
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.69
1.15
Khorfakkan xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
8%
12.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
1%
89.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.15 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 19W 13D 5L from 37 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 19L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 9W 7D 2L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.51 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 19W 13D 5L in their last 37 games (1.89 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Sharjah FC, 83% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sharjah FC and 78% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sharjah FC's games and 83% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sharjah FC's matches and 78% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.55 xG and Khorfakkan 1.15 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.68 against Khorfakkan attack 1.16 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 67% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 14%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 60%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.