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Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.27 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 0.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.63 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 71% | Draw 19% | Dibba Al Hisn 11%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 42%, Dibba Al Hisn 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights