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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Sharjah FC 1-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Baniyas SC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.59 against Baniyas SC attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 62% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 15%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights