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Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Wasl FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Al-Wasl FC 4-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.21 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 44%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 57%, Al-Wasl FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.76. Form was overturned, with Sharjah FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights