🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sharjah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Sharjah FC 0-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.43 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 39%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.58 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights