Sharjah FC 0-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.90 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Jazira have the better historical record — 4 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Sharjah FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2026, ended 0–5 with Al-Jazira winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Jazira have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 59% versus Al-Jazira 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 59% | Al-Jazira 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.34 xG and Al-Jazira 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.995 / defence 1.080 | Al-Jazira attack 0.966 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.711. Data: 27 Sharjah FC games / 27 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 48%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Jazira 2.08. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Sharjah FC 1.34 / Al-Jazira 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.995 / def 1.080 | Al-Jazira attack 0.966 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.711 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Al-Jazira xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:35 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 0 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 29% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (9 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Jazira 4W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
29%
3.45
23%
4.32
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.78
Al-Jazira xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
5%
20.52
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.78 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 9W 5D 13L from 27 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 8L across 27 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sharjah FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 5W 0D 8L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.78 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 9W 5D 13L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 14W 5D 8L in their last 27 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
5
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 54%, Al-Jazira 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sharjah FC) and 38% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 31%; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sharjah FC's games and 62% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 0-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.34 xG and Al-Jazira 1.78 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Al-Jazira attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 48%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 59%, Al-Jazira 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.