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Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Al-Jazira attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 32%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al-Jazira 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Al-Jazira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights