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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.03 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.63 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights