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Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 0.83 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.60 against Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights