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Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.29 xG and Ajman 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Ajman attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 28% | Ajman 27%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 55%, Ajman 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Ajman's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights