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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 4-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG and Khorfakkan 0.82 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.07 / defence 0.65 against Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%, Khorfakkan 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights