Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Khorfakkan — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 3–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% versus Khorfakkan 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Khorfakkan 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.69 xG and Khorfakkan 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.082 / defence 0.862 | Khorfakkan attack 0.912 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.690. Data: 27 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 27 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 30%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 3.33. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.69 / Khorfakkan 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.082 / def 0.862 | Khorfakkan attack 0.912 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Khorfakkan xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 46% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Record (4 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.91x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.21
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.02
1.33
Khorfakkan xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.33 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 18W 6D 3L from 27 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 13L across 27 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.11 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 18W 6D 3L in their last 27 games (2.22 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 7W 7D 13L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.23 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%, Khorfakkan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 54% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 54% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 54% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Khorfakkan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.69 xG and Khorfakkan 1.33 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Khorfakkan attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 30%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70%, Khorfakkan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.