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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Dibba Al Hisn 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al Hisn 3-2 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.26 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 0.78 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.21 / defence 0.60 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Draw 18% | Dibba Al Hisn 11%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, Dibba Al Hisn 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights