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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Baniyas SC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 1-0 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 xG and Baniyas SC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights