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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al Nasr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.85 xG and Al Nasr 1.28 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.53 / defence 0.95 against Al Nasr attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 26%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59%, Al Nasr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Nasr's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights