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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Nasr.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Nasr 2-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.66 xG and Al Nasr 1.34 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Nasr landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.23 / defence 0.81 against Al Nasr attack 1.10 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 64% | Draw 20% | Al Nasr 16%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 86%, Al Nasr 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights