Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al-Jazira to Al Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Al Rashid Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) versus 1.90 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Al-Jazira, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al-Jazira trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45% versus Al-Jazira 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Al-Jazira 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37 xG and Al-Jazira 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.127 / defence 0.835 | Al-Jazira attack 0.990 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.628. Al-Jazira's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 29 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 37%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Jazira 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37 / Al-Jazira 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.127 / def 0.835 | Al-Jazira attack 0.990 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Jazira xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 3 Al-Jazira.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 38% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
Record (9 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.88
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.71
1.35
Al-Jazira xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.35 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 20W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 16W 5D 8L from 29 games, 1.83 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Jazira.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 4D 3L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.83 scored and 1.03 conceded. Al-Jazira's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 7D 2L in their last 29 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 16W 5D 8L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Jazira away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.36 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Al-Jazira have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%, Al-Jazira 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 36% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 57% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 36% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37 xG and Al-Jazira 1.35 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 0.74, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 37%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%, Al-Jazira 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.83. Form was overturned, with Al-Jazira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.