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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al-Ittihad Kalba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 5-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.18 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.42 / defence 0.76 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66% | Draw 19% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 15%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights