🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajman.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 3-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.49 xG and Ajman 0.68 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.18 / defence 0.73 against Ajman attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 26% | Ajman 17%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%, Ajman 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Ajman's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights