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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajman.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 3-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.03 xG and Ajman 1.00 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Ajman attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% | Draw 21% | Ajman 18%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 82%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Ajman's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights