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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC finished level at 2-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Sharjah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.97, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 39% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 38%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 64%, Sharjah FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights