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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 2-4 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.57 xG and Sharjah FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Sharjah FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 27%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 68%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights