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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Khorfakkan 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.32 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.15 / defence 1.29 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.86 / defence 0.71, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights