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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Baniyas SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 5-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.55 xG and Baniyas SC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Baniyas SC attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 49% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 19%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 72%, Baniyas SC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.97 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights