Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Wasl FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Al-Wasl FC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.52 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 35%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Wasl FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights