Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al Wahda FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Khorfakkan's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 61% versus Al Wahda FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 58% | Al Wahda FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.879 / defence 1.010 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.791 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.592. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Khorfakkan games / 31 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wahda FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Khorfakkan 1.06 / Al Wahda FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.879 / def 1.010 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.791 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.592 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Wahda FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC is scheduled to kick off at 13:05 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 31% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Record (10 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 4 | Al Wahda FC 5W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.88) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.58
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.33
1.27
Al Wahda FC xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.27 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 10D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 2W 7D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 0.87 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 67%, Al Wahda FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Khorfakkan and 20% for Al Wahda FC.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 33%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 20% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.