🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Khorfakkan and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan and Al Nasr finished level at 3-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.61 xG and Al Nasr 1.05 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Nasr outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Al Nasr attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 50% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 25%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Al Nasr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.15 PPG, Al Nasr 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights