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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Al-Jazira 3-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.63 xG and Al-Jazira 1.66 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Al-Jazira attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 38% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 39%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 62%, Al-Jazira 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.27 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights