🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Jazira 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Al-Jazira 1-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.01 xG and Al-Jazira 1.96 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Al-Jazira attack 1.41 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 39%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Jazira 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights