Khorfakkan 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 December 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khorfakkan lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 68% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.33 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.030 / defence 0.976 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.790 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.468. Data: 37 Khorfakkan games / 37 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 32%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ittihad Kalba (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Khorfakkan 1.33 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.030 / def 0.976 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.790 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (2 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (1.03) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.79x) against Khorfakkan's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.69
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.13 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 11W 7D 19L from 37 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 14L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.22 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 9W 3D 6L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.24 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 44%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Khorfakkan) and 39% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 39% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.33 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 32%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 68%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.08 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.