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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Khorfakkan 2-4 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.59 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.30 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 34%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.23 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights