Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Khorfakkan welcome Al-Dhafra to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 13:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.80 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Dhafra in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Khorfakkan, 2 for Al-Dhafra and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 64% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 61% | Al-Dhafra 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.950 / defence 1.285 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.736 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.697. Data: 28 Khorfakkan games / 28 Al-Dhafra games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 37%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Dhafra 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Dhafra 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Khorfakkan 1.70 / Al-Dhafra 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.950 / def 1.285 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.736 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.697 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Dhafra xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:55 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan 2 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 40% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Record (6 meetings): Khorfakkan 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
40%
2.47
23%
4.35
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.30
1.60
Al-Dhafra xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.60 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 6W 9D 13L from 28 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 18L across 28 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 0.96 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 2W 6D 6L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.04 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 6W 9D 13L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 6W 4D 18L in their last 28 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Khorfakkan's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 0.86 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Khorfakkan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
From 7 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 79%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Khorfakkan) and 43% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Khorfakkan's games and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 43% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.60 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Dhafra landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 37%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 61%, Al-Dhafra 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.96 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.