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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Dhafra defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Dhafra beat Khorfakkan 2-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.20 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.81 / defence 1.62, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 59% | Draw 20% | Al-Dhafra 21%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Dhafra win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights