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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khorfakkan and Al Ain share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Khorfakkan and Al Ain drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.02 xG and Al Ain 2.23 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Al Ain attack 1.44 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 36% | Draw 20% | Al Ain 44%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 69%, Al Ain 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Al Ain's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights