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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ajman run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Khorfakkan 2-5 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.27 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.36 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Ajman attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 26% | Ajman 39%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 61%, Ajman 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.24 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights