Hatta SC 0-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hatta SC welcome Sharjah FC to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 13:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sharjah FC — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hatta SC have won 0, Sharjah FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 1.11 xG and Sharjah FC 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.712 / defence 1.169 | Sharjah FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.606. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Hatta SC games / 28 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 21% | Draw 21% | Sharjah FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Sharjah FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 21% | Draw 21% | Sharjah FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Hatta SC 1.11 / Sharjah FC 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.712 / def 1.169 | Sharjah FC attack 1.066 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Sharjah FC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 13:55 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Hatta SC 0 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 21% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hatta SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Hatta SC 0W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hatta SC's attack rating (0.71) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
21%
4.85
21%
4.67
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.11
2.00
Sharjah FC xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
35.92
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.00 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatta SC come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Hatta SC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Sharjah FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatta SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
1
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Hatta SC 0-3 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hatta SC's recent games and 50% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatta SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Hatta SC 0-3 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 1.11 xG and Sharjah FC 2.00 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatta SC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Sharjah FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 21% | Draw 21% | Sharjah FC 58%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 50%, Sharjah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hatta SC managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.