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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Dibba Al Hisn 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al Hisn 2-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.16 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.73 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.73 / defence 1.37 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Wasl FC 51%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 64%, Al-Wasl FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights