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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Urooba defy the odds to beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Urooba beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.34 xG and Al Urooba 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.64 / defence 1.17 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 40% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 33%, with Dibba Al Hisn to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Urooba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 60%, Al Urooba 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Urooba's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dibba Al Hisn 0.64 PPG, Al Urooba 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Urooba win broke the near-deadlock. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights