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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dibba Al Hisn defy the odds to beat Al Ain 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Ain 3-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.31 xG and Al Ain 2.21 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.75 / defence 1.43 against Al Ain attack 1.20 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 22% | Draw 20% | Al Ain 58%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Dibba Al Hisn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 61%, Al Ain 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Ain's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Dibba Al Hisn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights