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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Dibba Al Hisn 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.53 xG and Ajman 2.05 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dibba Al Hisn fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against Ajman attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 29% | Draw 21% | Ajman 50%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 69%, Ajman 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajman's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights