Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Dibba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.12 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.925 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.411. Data: 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 27 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.12 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.925 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 28% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.86) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
28%
3.59
27%
3.76
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.50 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.00 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.12 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 0%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.00 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.